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Prediction on Pulse Production Line Running State Based on
Markov Forecast Model |
QIN Yaru,HOU Zhixia,LV Ruiqiang,LIU Yiping |
(Aeronautical Key Laboratory for Digital Manufacturing Technology, AVIC Manufacturing Technology Research Institute, Beijing 100024,China) |
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Abstract The concept, characteristics of pulse production line is introduced, and the current application of pulse production line is reviewed. The factors influencing pulse production line and the necessity of state prediction are analyzed. Then, a method of state prediction based on Markov chain model is proposed. Based on Markov Chain forecast theory, the running states of pulse production line are classified. The state transition matrix is determined and the Markov forecast model is established. Last, the validity of the model is estimated.
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